{"id":97672,"date":"2025-03-27T07:11:56","date_gmt":"2025-03-27T06:11:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.no\/blogg\/?p=97672"},"modified":"2025-03-27T07:11:57","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T06:11:57","slug":"trump-2-0-tax-baby-tax","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.no\/blogg\/trump-2-0-tax-baby-tax\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump 2.0 \u2013 \u2018Tax, baby, tax!\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Denne morgenrapporten er ment som generell informasjon og skal ikke tolkes som investeringsr\u00e5d. Hensikten er \u00e5 gi leseren innsikt i verdens\u00f8konomien og finansmarkedene for \u00e5 fremme forst\u00e5else og kunnskap om disse omr\u00e5dene. Se utfyllende<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.no\/no\/info\/disclaimer\">\u00a0disclaimer<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"morgenrapport-torsdag-27-mars\">Morgenrapport &#8211; torsdag 27 mars<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Vi tror Oslo B\u00f8rs \u00e5pner ned 0,2%, eller innenfor intervallet [-0,6, 0,2]%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00e5r sp\u00e5dom som er utarbeidet av Roger Berntsen &#8211; analytiker i Nordnet, <strong>klokken 06.19 i dag<\/strong>, er ment for edukativt form\u00e5l og baserer seg p\u00e5 utviklingen i de globale finansmarkedene etter forrige handelsdag (historiske tall), deriblant <strong>S&amp;P 500 futures som er ned 0,5 % siden Oslo B\u00f8rs stengte onsdag, DAX futures som er ned 1,1 %, oljeprisen (Brent Blend) som er uendret og USDNOK som er uendret<\/strong>. Kursdrivende nyheter (resultater el.) fra selskapene som inng\u00e5r i Oslo B\u00f8rs er ikke hensyntatt i sp\u00e5dommen. Roger Berntsen har gitt ut denne morgenrapporten uavbrutt i 18 \u00e5r, men han kan gj\u00f8re feil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Roger Berntsen har ingen eierinteresser i selskaper nevnt i denne rapporten.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"verdens-aksjemarkeder\">Verdens aksjemarkeder<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>De toneangivende indeksene i USA (S&amp;P 500, NASDAQ COMP, DJIA og RUSSELL 2000) falt 1,1 prosent i snitt i g\u00e5r.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>S&amp;P 500 Volatility Index (VIX-indeksen) endte p\u00e5 18,3 poeng.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>VIX &gt;25: Signaliserer frykt og usikkerhet. VIX &lt;15: Indikerer stabilitet og optimisme.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cintas Corp (5,8%), Paychex Inc (4,2%), Molina Healthcare Inc (4,2%), toppet vinnerlisten blant selskapene som inng\u00e5r i S&amp;P 500 indeksen.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Super Micro Computer Inc (-8,9%), Moderna Inc (-7%), Arista Networks Inc (-6,1%), endte p\u00e5 bunn.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Eurostoxx 600 endte ned 0,7 prosent i g\u00e5r, mens de ledende b\u00f8rsindeksene i Norden (OMXS30, OBX, OMXH25 og OMXC20) endte ned 0,8 prosent i snitt.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>De st\u00f8rste indeksene i Asia (ASX 200, NIKKEI 225, KOSPI, CSI 300, HANG SENG, SENSEX) er ned 0,2 prosent i snitt torsdag morgen.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Pilene pekte nedover p\u00e5 Wall Street onsdag kveld, dog dette m\u00e5 kanksje sees i samanheng med den siste tids rekyl. Etter stengetid derimot, bar det nedover for de stor bilselskapene GM, Ford mfl., som n\u00e5 vil treffes av Trumps innf\u00f8ring av ekstra toll p\u00e5 25 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trumps tollkrig &#8211; ligner kanksje mer en blitzkrig enn noe annet. Hvorvidt denne vil lede til m\u00e5let om at selskapene som rammes vil flytte produksjonen til USA i stort monn gjenst\u00e5r \u00e5 se. Det er for \u00f8vrig flere mulige utfall av dette &#8211; spesielt mtp. Trumps transaksjonelle stil. Et utfall, som det ikke snakkes om er en disrupsjon av dagens globale handelssystem &#8211; Kanksje er engame for Trump \u00e5 reformere WTO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"disrupsjon-av-det-globale-handelssystemet\">Disrupsjon av det globale handelssystemet?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>En sentral antakelse bak Trumps aggresive strategi er at \u00f8konomiske insentiver inkludert tollbarierer vil f\u00e5 selskaper til \u00e5 flytte produksjon &#8220;hjem&#8221; til USA. Det er naivt. Global produksjon handler ikke bare om kostnader, men om kompleksitet, logistikk, kompetanse, og ikke minst \u2013 tid. Produksjon flyttes ikke fordi noen truer med pisk, men fordi hele verdikjeder gir bedre total\u00f8konomi et annet sted. Beslutningstakere m\u00e5 forst\u00e5 at n\u00e6ringslivet ikke prim\u00e6rt reagerer p\u00e5 retorikk, men p\u00e5 tall og realiteter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Den mer ubehagelige \u2013 og underkommuniserte \u2013 risikoen er at gjentatte slike tollutspill fra verdens st\u00f8rste \u00f8konomi kan bidra til \u00e5 destabilisere hele WTO-systemet. Dette kan ligne en strategisk omvei for \u00e5 reformere WTO. Og det finnes gode grunner til at WTO trenger reform. Men metoden \u2013 om det faktisk er en metode \u2013 er risikabel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"verdensokonomien-beveger-seg-raskere-enn-reglene\">Verdens\u00f8konomien beveger seg raskere enn reglene<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Vi st\u00e5r i dag i et skj\u00e6ringspunkt: Verdens\u00f8konomien beveger seg med en fart og kompleksitet som regelverkene ikke er kalibrert for. Teknologi, dataflyt, automatisering og finansstr\u00f8mmer beveger seg i realtid \u2013 mens institusjonene som regulerer disse systemene jobber p\u00e5 analog fart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Her ligger et av v\u00e5r tids store strukturelle dilemmaer: Hvordan skal vi sikre rettferdighet, transparens og forutsigbarhet i en verden der reglene halter etter virkeligheten?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"et-paradoks-og-en-paminnelse\">Et paradoks og en p\u00e5minnelse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>USA har gjennom ti\u00e5r v\u00e6rt selve drivkraften bak det globale, regelbaserte handelssystemet \u2013 og har blitt den st\u00f8rste vinneren. At landet n\u00e5 fors\u00f8ker \u00e5 omskrive reglene, er ikke bare et politisk paradoks \u2013 det er en p\u00e5minnelse om at det som skaper velstand i \u00e9n epoke, ikke n\u00f8dvendigvis t\u00e5ler friksjonen i neste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"renter-valuta-og-ravarer\">Renter, valuta og r\u00e5varer<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Oljeprisen (Brent Blend) st\u00e5r n\u00e5 i 73,9 dollar per fat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1 USD koster i skrivende stund: 10,53 NOK; 10,02 SEK; 6,92 DKK og 0,93 EUR, mens 1 EUR koster: 11,4 NOK; 10,8 SEK og 7,46 DKK.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rentekurven i USA er normalisert (to\u00e5rs renten, som st\u00e5r i 4,01 er lavere enn ti\u00e5rs renten, som st\u00e5r i 4,35).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>De langsiktige inflasjonsforventningene i USA, m\u00e5lt gjennom 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T10YIE), ligger p\u00e5 2,36 prosent, mot Federal Reserve sitt m\u00e5l p\u00e5 2 prosent (Kilde: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gull (Gold Spot), som handles i USD per troy uns, st\u00e5r i 3035,1 (All-time high).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I dag er det duket for rentem\u00f8te i Norges Bank. De fleste tror renten blir holdt uendret &#8211; nok en gang, men det finnes logiske grunner for rentekutt ogs\u00e5. Les mer om det her: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.no\/blogg\/tar-makrookonomene-feil-kan-norges-bank-sette-ned-renten-denne-uken\/\">Tar makro\u00f8konomene feil? kan Norges Bank sette ned renten denne uken?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Kilde: R\u00e5data (renter, valutakurser, r\u00e5varepriser, indekser og aksjekurser) er hentet fra Infront.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"fa-morgenrapportene-sendt-pa-e-post\">F\u00e5 morgenrapportene sendt p\u00e5 e-post<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Legg inn e-postadressen din i feltet under og f\u00e5 morgenrapportene sendt rett til innboksen din.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.no\/contentful\/components?id=efjJZqZrJYhoSE4ht38LG&#038;embedded=true\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"100%\" height=\"350px\"><\/iframe>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pilene pekte nedover p\u00e5 Wall Street onsdag kveld, dog dette m\u00e5 kanksje sees i samanheng med den siste tids rekyl. Etter stengetid derimot, bar det nedover for de stor bilselskapene<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41261,"featured_media":95089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3879],"tags":[5231],"class_list":["post-97672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morgenrapporter","tag-morgenoppdatering"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/1200x430-Blog-hero-1-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/1200x430-Blog-hero-1-150x54.jpg 150w, 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