{"id":89717,"date":"2024-02-07T09:06:14","date_gmt":"2024-02-07T08:06:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.no\/blogg\/?p=89717"},"modified":"2026-03-18T13:30:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T12:30:22","slug":"rentetoppen-er-nadd-hva-na-med-likviditetsfond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.no\/blogg\/rentetoppen-er-nadd-hva-na-med-likviditetsfond\/","title":{"rendered":"Rentetoppen er n\u00e5dd \u2013 hva n\u00e5 med likviditetsfond?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hvor lenge varer festen i rentemarkedet? Storebrand-forvalter Sigve Stabrun tror det er gode utsikter til solid avkastning ogs\u00e5 i 2024, men forteller ogs\u00e5 om farene som kan stoppe festen.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Storebrand<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2023 ble det beste \u00e5ret for likviditetsfond i manns minne. Likviditetsfond, som er rentefondene med lavest risiko, leverte nemlig en avkastning p\u00e5 mellom 5 og 6 prosent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bakteppet er ikke bare hyggelig: Kraftig \u00f8kt inflasjon har tvunget sentralbanker over hele verden til \u00e5 sette opp renten. Norges Bank har alene st\u00e5tt for 14 rente\u00f8kninger p\u00e5 to \u00e5r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 Mange har f\u00e5tt opp \u00f8ynene for likviditetsfond \u2013 det er det ingen tvil om. Det skyldes en kombinasjon av stigende renter og h\u00f8yere risikop\u00e5slag som gj\u00f8r det mulig \u00e5 h\u00f8ste en h\u00f8yere avkastning enn tidligere, og som n\u00e5 er sv\u00e6rt konkurransedyktig sett opp mot andre investeringsalternativer. N\u00e5r rentefondene som har lavest risiko gir en l\u00f8pende \u00e5rlig avkastning p\u00e5 5-6 prosent, s\u00e5 er det et fristende alternativ for mange, sier Stabrun. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Han viser til at forventet avkastning i mer risikable investeringer som aksjer og eiendom ikke n\u00f8dvendigvis er s\u00e5 veldig mye h\u00f8yere enn den l\u00f8pende avkastningen vi n\u00e5 observerer i denne fondskategorien, og da med en betydelig lavere risiko. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fortsatt gode utsikter <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e5 venter ekspertene at rentetoppen er n\u00e5dd. Noen f\u00e5 tror p\u00e5 rentekutt allerede i f\u00f8rste halv\u00e5r, mens flertallet tror Norges Bank venter til andre halv\u00e5r med \u00e5 kutte renten f\u00f8rste gang. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 De fleste selskaper i Norge og Norden tjener godt med penger og konkursratene er fortsatt p\u00e5 lave niv\u00e5er. Selv om det er en tydelig todeling i norsk \u00f8konomi, der enkelte bransjer, som bygg\/anlegg og varehandel g\u00e5r tr\u00e5tt, er det ogs\u00e5 mange som gj\u00f8r det bra, blant annet de oljerelaterte n\u00e6ringene, sier Stabrun. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 Den samlede aktiviteten i norsk \u00f8konomi er dermed fremdeles relativt god, inflasjonen fortsatt altfor h\u00f8y, og den norske kronen langt svakere enn Norges Bank \u00f8nsker seg, fortsetter han. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvor lenge varer festen?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Utsiktene er derfor fortsatt gode for likviditesfond, selv om rentetoppen er n\u00e5dd og kredittp\u00e5slagene har blitt noe mindre. Stabrun trekker imidlertid frem to forhold som kan f\u00f8re til at stemningen snur. Det f\u00f8rste er at styringsrentene faller raskt utover sommeren og h\u00f8sten. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 Da vil ogs\u00e5 den l\u00f8pende avkastningen i likviditesfondene v\u00e5re falle. Det er tross alt renteniv\u00e5et i markedet som gir mye av grunnlaget for den absolutte avkastningen vi leverer i fondene v\u00e5re. Vi anser det imidlertid som lite sannsynlig at vi skal tilbake til et \u201cnullrentescenario\u201d. Det eneste som kan utl\u00f8se noe slikt er en kraftig resesjon, forklarer han. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 Selv om det skulle komme 3-4 kjappe rentekutt s\u00e5 vil investorer i likviditetsfond med lav risiko fortsatt kunne h\u00f8ste en avkastning p\u00e5 cirka 5 prosent, legger han til. Det andre faremomentet er ogs\u00e5 knyttet til renteniv\u00e5et p\u00e5 kort sikt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 Hvis vi skulle f\u00e5 en videre \u00f8kning i styringsrentene s\u00e5 vil de bransjene som allerede sliter, som bygg\/anlegg, helt klart merke det. Dette er blant de mest rentef\u00f8lsomme sektorene og vi kan da se flere konkurser der. Ogs\u00e5 n\u00e6ringseiendom vil kunne f\u00e5 det t\u00f8ft, sier Stabrun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Betyr dette at Storebrands forvaltere styrer unna bransjer som n\u00e6ringseiendom? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 Vi pr\u00f8ver \u00e5 styre risikoen i forhold til mulige scenarioer. Vi er investert i n\u00e6ringseiendom. Noen akt\u00f8rer har hatt det krevende, men de st\u00f8rste norske utstederne ser fortsatt robuste ut. Selv om aksjekursene svinger s\u00e5 betyr ikke det at selskapenes betalingsevne ikke er til stede. Det kan imidlertid endre seg hvis rentene fortsetter \u00e5 stige og blir liggende vedvarende h\u00f8yt. Da styrer vi ikke n\u00f8dvendigvis unna sektoren, men det blir desto viktigere \u00e5 plukke de riktige og mest solide selskapene, sier Stabrun. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I tillegg til dette vil ogs\u00e5 en resesjon i USA eller Europa kunne p\u00e5virke norsk \u00f8konomi og renteniv\u00e5. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 Vi er en liten og \u00e5pen \u00f8konomi som helt klart blir p\u00e5virket av det som skjer ute, sier Stabrun. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Solid historikk <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Forvalterne i Storebrand Asset Management har oppn\u00e5dd gode resultater i 2023. Stabrun forvalter selv likviditetsfondene “Storebrand Kort Kreditt IG<\/a>” og “Skagen H\u00f8yrente<\/a>” som leverte mer enn 5,5 prosent i fjor og som topper avkastningslisten hos Nordnet i sin kategori (3 \u00e5rs historikk).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Se fondslisten<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 V\u00e5r styrke er at vi er et team med fem personer som har lang fartstid i markedene. Til sammen har vi over 80 \u00e5rs erfaring i det norske rentemarkedet. Vi er en sammensatt gjeng som har ulike styrker og utfyller hverandre godt, sier Stabrun. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nysgjerrighet og konkurranseinstinkt <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Storebrand har et stort fagmilj\u00f8 som jobber for \u00e5 fange opp trender i markedet, b\u00e5de n\u00e5r det gjelder aksjer, renter og makro\u00f8konomi. Storebrand har ogs\u00e5 kredittanalyse p\u00e5 alle selskaper i det norske markedet som kvalifiserer til “investment grade” (store selskaper med lav kredittrisiko). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 Vi har ressurser til \u00e5 luke ut de d\u00e5rligste selskapene og satse p\u00e5 de vi tror vil levere best over tid, sier Stabrun. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 For \u00e5 lykkes som forvalter m\u00e5 man ogs\u00e5 v\u00e6re nysgjerrig og ha et sterkt konkurranseinstinkt. Til syvende og sist s\u00e5 handler det om \u00e5 skape meravkastning for kundene v\u00e5re. Vi er aktive i markedet og tar gjerne kontakt med utstedere selv for \u00e5 f\u00e5 til investeringer som kan v\u00e6re gunstige, legger han til. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for fremtidig avkastning. Fremtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved tegning, forvaltning og innl\u00f8sning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som f\u00f8lge av kurstap. Ytterligere informasjon om fondene er tilgjengelig i det enkelte fondsprospekt og annen informasjon p\u00e5 storebrand.no.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hvor lenge varer festen i rentemarkedet? Storebrand-forvalter Sigve Stabrun tror det er gode utsikter til solid avkastning ogs\u00e5 i 2024, men forteller ogs\u00e5 om farene som kan stoppe festen. Storebrand 2023 ble det beste \u00e5ret for likviditetsfond i manns minne. Likviditetsfond, som er rentefondene med lavest risiko, leverte nemlig en avkastning p\u00e5 mellom 5 og 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