{"id":69502,"date":"2021-08-19T13:26:58","date_gmt":"2021-08-19T11:26:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.no\/blogg\/?p=69502"},"modified":"2026-03-11T17:12:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T16:12:15","slug":"pengepodden-slutt-pa-lange-perioder-med-borsfall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.no\/blogg\/pengepodden-slutt-pa-lange-perioder-med-borsfall\/","title":{"rendered":"#pengepodden – Slutt p\u00e5 lange perioder med b\u00f8rsfall?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Er det slutt p\u00e5 lange perioder med b\u00f8rsfall? Vil verdens sentralbanken redde aksjemarkedene hver gang vi f\u00e5r et kraftig fall? Dette diskuterer Roger, Bj\u00f8rn Erik og Mads i #pengepodden denne uken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lytt til episoden.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I mars 2020 stupte verdens b\u00f8rser med omlag 30 % p\u00e5 fire uker. S\u00e5 snudde aksjemarkedet raskt opp igjen. Etter ca et halvt \u00e5r var kursene tilbake p\u00e5 gamle h\u00f8yder. En s\u00e5 rask nedtur med p\u00e5f\u00f8lgende opptur har vi aldri sett f\u00f8r. Tidligere krakk og nedturer i aksjemarkedet har som regel vart i flere \u00e5r, og oppgangen tilbake til gamle h\u00f8yder har tatt lang tid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c5rsaken til at krakket ble s\u00e5 kortvarig var de raske og massive stimulans-pakkene fra verdens sentralbanker og offensive finanspolitikk fra myndighetene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No more \u201dbear markets\u201d?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

(fra 15:24) Bj\u00f8rn Erik stiller sp\u00f8rsm\u00e5l om vi aldri mer vil se lange perioder med b\u00f8rsfall igjen, siden sentralbankene og myndighetene n\u00e5 har oppskriften p\u00e5 hvordan de kan begrense styrken og varigheten i nedturene. Roger avfeier dette med at dette er \u00abbare tull\u00bb. Historiene vil gjenta seg, og vi vil f\u00e5 lange perioder med \u201dbear market\u201d igjen \u2013 f\u00f8r eller senere, mener Roger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e6r forberedt p\u00e5 at du vil oppleve 4-5 halveringer i aksjemarkedet i din levetid. Tr\u00f8sten er at den \u00f8konomiske veksten og teknologisk utvikling vil f\u00f8re til at aksjemarkedet vil n\u00e5 nye rekordnoteringer p\u00e5 lang sikt, forteller Roger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det som var spesielt i denne nedturen var at pandemien rammet real\u00f8konomien og hele befolkningen. Redningspakkene gikk til husholdninger og bedrifter, ikke prim\u00e6rt til finansmarkedene. Og tiltakene ble iverksatt veldig raskt, siden myndighetene hadde l\u00e6rt av feilene fra finanskrisen et dr\u00f8yt ti\u00e5r tidligere. Dersom neste nedtur i aksjemarkedene skyldes svak \u00f8konomisk vekst, vil neppe myndighetene og sentralbankene bruke like sterke skyts, mener gutta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mads legger til at pengetrykkingen har hatt god effekt hittil, men at ubegrenset pengetrykking ikke fungerer i det uendelige, for p\u00e5 et tidspunkt vil tilliten til sentralbankene forsvinne \u2013 og da faller aksjemarkedene videre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odin Fondene har et interessant blogginnlegg<\/a> om dette temaet, hvor en graf viser hvordan det globale aksjemarkedet har oppf\u00f8rt seg under de seks siste nedturene som var st\u00f8rre enn 20 prosent \u2013 siden 1969. Alle de andre b\u00f8rs-nedturene varte mye lenger enn corona-nedturen, som man kan se ut fra grafen og lese i Odin-innlegget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sammenhengen mellom b\u00f8rsnedturer og verdsettelse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

(fra 32:37) Bj\u00f8rn Erik viser til en artikkel i Wall Street Journal \u201dHow Long Might the Next Bear Market Last?\u201d,<\/a> som ser p\u00e5 verdsettelsen av det amerikanske aksjemarkedet ut fra P\/E og andre n\u00f8kkeltall forut for tidligere b\u00f8rskrakk versus dybden og lengden p\u00e5 b\u00f8rsfallet. Man skulle tro at jo h\u00f8yere verdsettelse (h\u00f8ye PE- og PB-multipler), jo lengre varte nedturene. Men det er ikke tilfelle. Det er liten historisk sammenheng mellom aksjeverdsettelse og varigheten p\u00e5 en nedtur, viser tallene. I mer enn halvparten av tilfellene varte faktisk bj\u00f8rnemarkedene lengre n\u00e5r verdsettelsen var lavere i begynnelsen av nedturen, forteller han.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roger er ikke overrasket over funnene. Er verdsettelsen i aksjemarkedet lav i starten av en nedtur er det allerede d\u00e5rlige tider i \u00f8konomien. Da blir det enda tyngre \u00e5 komme ut av nedturen, poengterer han.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selv om ikke h\u00f8y verdsettelse n\u00f8dvendigvis betyr en lang og dyp nedtur, viser historien at h\u00f8y verdsettelse \u2013 som vi har i dag – indikerer svak avkastning i aksjemarkedet de ti neste \u00e5rene, fremg\u00e5r det av artikkelen i WSJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gutta er enig om at avkastningen p\u00e5 verdens b\u00f8rser de neste ti \u00e5rene blir svakere enn de ti foreg\u00e5ende. Verdensindeksen har gitt ca 11 % annualisert avkastning siste ti \u00e5r<\/a>. Bj\u00f8rn Erik forventer en \u00e5rlig gjennomsnittlig avkastning p\u00e5 5-6 % de ti neste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f8r forrige episode av #pengepodden: Slik kan stortingsvalget p\u00e5virke \u00f8konomien din<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abonner via RSS<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abonner via iTunes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spotify<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Er det slutt p\u00e5 lange perioder med b\u00f8rsfall? Vil verdens sentralbanken redde aksjemarkedene hver gang vi f\u00e5r et kraftig fall? Dette diskuterer Roger, Bj\u00f8rn Erik og Mads i #pengepodden denne uken. Lytt til episoden. I mars 2020 stupte verdens b\u00f8rser med omlag 30 % p\u00e5 fire uker. S\u00e5 snudde aksjemarkedet raskt opp igjen. Etter ca […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20033,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"audio","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[6463],"tags":[3962],"class_list":["post-69502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-audio","hentry","category-pengepodden","tag-toppsak","post_format-post-format-audio"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/02\/Banner-Pengepodden-1024x400-1-150x59.png","width":150,"height":59,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/02\/Banner-Pengepodden-1024x400-1-150x59.png 150w, 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