{"id":48701,"date":"2019-11-26T15:51:24","date_gmt":"2019-11-26T14:51:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.no\/blogg\/?p=48701"},"modified":"2026-03-18T12:20:01","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T11:20:01","slug":"blir-det-julerally-i-ar-ogsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.no\/blogg\/blir-det-julerally-i-ar-ogsa\/","title":{"rendered":"Blir det julerally i \u00e5r ogs\u00e5?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Kanonbra b\u00f8rs\u00e5r<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Oslo B\u00f8rs har utviklet seg sterkt i 2019 med en oppgang p\u00e5 hele 13 % (OBX-indeksen). I USA har det g\u00e5tt enda bedre: De toneangivende indeksene har lagt p\u00e5 seg mellom 20 og 30 prosent, godt hjulpet av gigantselskaper som Apple, Microsoft, Facebook mfl.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Oslo B\u00f8rs (OBX-indeksen) innev\u00e6rende \u00e5r<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e5r det er sagt, \u00e5rets b\u00f8rsoppgang m\u00e5 sees i lys av at fjor\u00e5rets kraftige globale b\u00f8rskorreksjon, der S&P 500 i l\u00f8pet av 4. kvartal falt hele 20 prosent fra toppen, som en f\u00f8lge av at handelskrigen mellom USA og Kina ble trappet ytterligere opp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Utvikling S&P 500 siste to \u00e5r<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Handelskrigen mellom USA og Kina, som er inne i sin 16. m\u00e5ned, har gradvis svekket verdens\u00f8konomien i perioden. Dette har gitt betydelige bevegelser i verdens finansmarkeder, spesielt i rentemarkedet. De lange rentene har falt til nye rekordlave niv\u00e5er, samtidig som de fleste sentralbanker, unntatt Norges Bank, har kuttet styringsrentene sine flere ganger for \u00e5 demme opp for d\u00e5rligere vekstutsikter. Det er verdt \u00e5 merke seg at lavere renter har v\u00e6rt en viktig \u00e5rsak til den gode b\u00f8rsutviklingen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Defensive kvalitetsaksjer i vinden<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Selskaper som er mindre sensitive\nfor handelsuro, s\u00e5kalte defensive kvalitetsselskaper, har gjort det ekstra\nsterkt det siste \u00e5ret. Her hjemme har vi noen slike selskaper, deriblant\nlaksekjempen Mowi, samt Nordens st\u00f8rste merkevareselskap, Orkla.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oljerelaterte selskaper derimot,\nmed Equinor i spissen, har slitt i motvind i 2019. Lavere vekstimpulser (pga.\nhandelskrigen) har gitt lavere ettersp\u00f8rsel etter r\u00e5varer, som bl.a. olje og\ngass. Aluminiumskjempen Norsk Hydro har opplevd samme type ettersp\u00f8rselsvikt\netter alumina og aluminium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tankrederne tjener gode penger<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

En av de store overraskelsene p\u00e5 Oslo B\u00f8rs i \u00e5r er shippingselskaper som frakter olje og gass. Fordelaktige markedsforhold, som stabile oljepriser, lengre seilingsruter (fra USA til Asia), samt lav ordrebok (skip i bestilling), har bidratt til at fraktratene har stabilisert seg vesentlig over \u00abbreak-even\u00bb niv\u00e5er. S\u00e5fremt verdens\u00f8konomien ikke svekker seg betydelig, evt. g\u00e5r inn i en resesjon, kan disse selskapene tenkes \u00e5 gj\u00f8re det bra ogs\u00e5 fortsettelsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Desember en fremragende m\u00e5ned – statistisk sett<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

De siste 23 \u00e5rene har desember vist seg \u00e5 v\u00e6re en fremragende m\u00e5ned for investorene p\u00e5 Oslo B\u00f8rs, i alle fall statistisk sett. I snitt har b\u00f8rsen steget 2,2 % denne m\u00e5neden. I desember 1999 steg hovedindeksen hele 11,6 % (h\u00f8yest), mens i 2002 falt hovedindeksen 8,6 % (lavest). Videre, 8 av 10 m\u00e5neder har for \u00f8vrig endt i pluss. Dvs. ser man utelukkende p\u00e5 statistikk har desember v\u00e6rt den beste m\u00e5neden for investorene, med unntak av april.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u00c5 \u00abmestre\u00bb det umulige<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det er vanskelig \u00e5 sp\u00e5 om fremtiden, i alle fall p\u00e5 kort sikt. Derfor har jeg ingen formening om det blir \u00abjulerally\u00bb i \u00e5r eller ikke. Mao. jeg bruker ikke tid p\u00e5 \u00e5 \u00abmestre\u00bb det umulige, nemlig \u00e5 time markedet p\u00e5 kort sikt. Det jeg er opptatt av er \u00e5 finne selskaper som jeg kan v\u00e6re medeier i p\u00e5 lang sikt (helst for evig tid). Eksempler p\u00e5 slike selskaper er; Mowi, Salmar (konsum), Tomra (industri), Gjensidige (forsikring). I tillegg til at disse selskapene har betydelig langsiktig vekstpotensial, har de en samtidig en solid balanse (lav gjeldsgrad) som gj\u00f8r at de med stor sannsynlighet vil komme igjennom den neste store krisen som et enda sterkere selskap relativt til konkurrentene. De sterkeste selskapene vil av naturlige \u00e5rsaker kunne \u00abstjele\u00bb markedsandeler i nedturer ved at \u00absvake\u00bb konkurrenterenten forsvinner eller kommer p\u00e5 \u00abbilligsalg\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f8r ogs\u00e5: pengepodden \u2013 Hemmeligheten med Buffetts strategi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Merk! Undertegende eier aksjer i Mowi, SalMar, Tomra, Gjensidige,\nEquinor og Norsk Hydro<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kanonbra b\u00f8rs\u00e5r Oslo B\u00f8rs har utviklet seg sterkt i 2019 med en oppgang p\u00e5 hele 13 % (OBX-indeksen). I USA har det g\u00e5tt enda bedre: De toneangivende indeksene har lagt p\u00e5 seg mellom 20 og 30 prosent, godt hjulpet av gigantselskaper som Apple, Microsoft, Facebook mfl. N\u00e5r det er sagt, \u00e5rets b\u00f8rsoppgang m\u00e5 sees i […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41261,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[6698],"tags":[3962],"class_list":["post-48701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markedsnyheter","tag-toppsak"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/06\/Roger-Bertnsen-utend\u00f8rs-1024x400-Svart-hvit-150x59.jpg","width":150,"height":59,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blogg.nordnet.no\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/06\/Roger-Bertnsen-utend\u00f8rs-1024x400-Svart-hvit-150x59.jpg 150w, 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