Oil Market Report

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Oil prices fell Monday morning on the back of rising supplies from OPEC during last month. Crude benchmarks have rallied by 20% during Q3 2017 following a sharp dip at the beginning of the quarter.

OPEC exported 25.73 million bpd in September, a sharp increase of 450,000 bpd from August’s revised 25.28 million bpd. The provisional assessment from Thomson Reuters Oil Research sees gains across some of the geographies the group spans. The UAE had the strongest monthly increase by 200,000 bpd to 2.8 million bpd in September, followed by Nigeria’s 170,000 bpd m-o-m increase to 2.11 million bpd. Conversely, declines were seen out of Saudi Arabia, where loadings slowed by 140,000 bpd m-o-m to 7.10 million bpd.

Kirkuk crude oil flows and exports from Venezuela, which represent OPEC’s biggest risk for a possible disruption remained relatively flat, with overall Kirkuk exports at 14.83 million bbl, while Venezuela saw a minor uptick of 50,000 bpd m-o-m at 1.52 million bpd.

Investors in the US lifted their net long position by almost 43.5 million bbl last week, marking the second large weekly build in a row. Longs rose by 21.84 million bbl to 358.81 million bbl, while shorts were trimmed by 21.66 million bbl to just above 107 million bbl.

Producers’ activity followed mixed trends as both longs and shorts were trimmed, leading the net position to grow by 10.05 million bbl to 88.08 million bbl short. Longs were trimmed by 22.76 million bbl w-o-w, while shorts were reduced by 32.8 million bbl w-o-w.

The fleet of active rigs increased last week for the first time in the past seven weeks. Six units were added to lift the fleet aggregate to 750 units

The Oil Research Team
Supply Chain & Commodities Research

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