KEY TAKEWAYS FRA PARETO-KONFERANSEN:
E&P – Focus shifting back to growth
The majority of E&Ps have increasingly shifted focus from cost reductions towards growth opportunities. This largely relates to new developments, which now offers solid returns on the back of significantly reduced break-even prices. Exploration was also in focus, with some companies highlighting that they see more value creation potential in exploration than M&A.
Seismic – Challenging winter, but uptick in 2018 tenders
Visibility remains low for the winter, and the majority of contract players will likely struggle with Q4 utilization. Tendering activity has however picked up recently, but with the majority of contracts for 2018 work. The supply side continues nevertheless to adjust, and could come down further on additional warm stacking. The MC market remains more resilient, in spite of the recent oil price volatility, with licensing rounds triggering some interest in mature regions such as Norway and Brazil.
Drilling – Increasing optimism on improving outlook
Optimism among rig companies is getting increasingly noticeable on the back of bottoming demand. The North Sea floater market is highlighted as the market that is likely to improve first. Consistent with increased optimism from companies we noticed an increased interest for offshore drillers at this year’s conference.
Subsea – Uptick in FEED activity, gradual recovery expected
All players report on a continued uptick on early phase and FEED studies, which is an important early indicator for an increase in activity. The market is expected to see a gradual recovery, with longer tie-backs continuing to dominate new awards. The subsea players are benefitting from solid balance sheets and good cash flow generation, and industry focus is now on integration across the supply chain and further cost deflation.
OSV – Market bottoming out, focus is on M&A
The OSV market has bottomed out, with utilization picking up marginally the past six months. Demand is however not expected to pick up materially in the short to medium term, with a supply side adjustment being a more likely catalyst for an improvement in utilization. Focus is on M&A rather than restructurings, with asset values triggering interest for further acquisitions.
FPSO – Tendering activity low, focus on cost deflation
Tendering activity remains low, as oil companies continue to defer greenfield and deepwater developments. Focus remains on standardization and cost deflation, which could trigger improved project economics for deepwater developments. Redeployment of existing units remains key, whilst the longer term market outlook will largely depend on Brazil, and a rebound in activity offshore West Africa.
Shipping – Optimism on historically low orderbooks
Overall sentiment among the shipping companies was relatively optimistic, with most orderbooks now approaching historically low levels as the last vessels from the 14/15 order boom are being delivered. In LNG, owners are reluctant to fix vessels on longer charters as they await the surge in liquefaction capacity coming online. VLGC owners are starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel, though focus remains on maintaining healthy balance sheets and low cash break-evens through at least H1’18. For product tankers, owners expect product stockpiles to be at the 5-year average within YE’17 and did also express reluctance to fix long-term charters at depressed rates as the market is coming into balance.
Gjengitt fra Pareto Securities – www.paretosec.no
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